The state which used to have
largest number of seats in Lok Sabha from among the Southern State has several
reputations to its credit. In the past it used to defy national waves (like the
Janta wave of 1977 and Rajiv wave of
1984) yet over the last two decades it has acquired a reputation of being a
bell-weather state. In 1999, 2004 and 2009 it played a big part in boosting the
numbers of the ruling coalition in New Delhi and provided it with a bit of
stability. Had it not been for AP (along with Tamil Nadu), Congress’s efforts
of coming back to power may not have succeeded in 2004. So it is natural that
all political coalition would look towards this state with some kind of hope.
Still from 2009 a lot has changed for this state. Its clout is going to be
reduced after it gets divided in two states from June 2, 2014 onwards. Though
the official declaration of partition is yet to take place, the division on the
ground is much clearer. The bitterness of division is so acrid that significant
players in one part of state are reduced to margins in the other part. So it
will be futile to analyze the two potential states as one political entity. So
let us have a look at state of political affairs in these states separately.
Telengana
Telangana with 17 seats to its
kitty is one region where the Congress’s game plan for elections may be bearing
the expected kind of results. When the Congress high command realized the mess
created by post-YSR leaders in Andhra they knew that they stand very little chance
to counter the threats posed by YSR Congress and TDP in United Andhra. Thus
they adopted a ploy to divide and rule. The expectation of the Congress party
was to sweep all 17 seats in the region after the proposed merger of KCR-led
TRS in Congress. Yet it did not happen. KCR is a maverick and he knew that in
Congress he will never be able to call the shots. So he tried to keep his
identity and asked for an alliance. Congress did not concede to this demand as
they knew that KCR is a political drifter and may swing to other side at only a
slight chance of advantage. So it opted for a gamble and is contesting alone. Many
see this as an ill calculated move. Yet
my senses say that might not be the case. TRS may have been at the forefront of
the agitation in Telangana yet people in the region know that it had not been
possible for them to gain statehood if the Congress president had not put the
weight behind this decision. They know that this is creating a uncomfortable
situation for Congress in Seemandhra where it is being routed. This is creating
some sort of sympathy undercurrent for Congress which is not translating into a
wave only due to poor governance of UPA in Delhi. Yet Congress may have an
upper hand in this region. Historically parties leading a partition movement
have not been able to gain politically after the creation of the state. JMM in
Jharkhand and UKD in Uttaranchal are examples of this phenomenon. JMM has been
able to keep itself afloat only due to fact that it is the main tribal based party
in the region otherwise it too may have been decimated like UKD. TRS’s own
political record is not good. It does not have a political organization to
convert the momentum into seats. Opinion polls are giving it 7 to 9 seats but I
doubt that they will fare so well, especially in the parliamentary polls.
Congress with a well-oiled election machinery and gamut of experienced leaders
fighting on its ticket may beat TRS in several seats. Since in most of the
seats it is a direct fight between TRS and Congress the financial might of
later may pull the balance in its favour. The most recent decision to give
reservations to minority community may give Congress the much needed additional
strength in an election where the Muslim votes are already clutching the Hand in
a big way. Only in Hyderabad it can result in some sort of polarization which
can bring back BJP-TDP alliance in contention. It can also have some polarizing
effect on couple of other seats. So in the end BJP-TDP alliance may not be a
player in more than 3 to 4 seats any should consider itself lucky if it can
grab any seat(s).
So the predictions for Telangana
is –
Congress – 10 to 12 seats TRS – 4
to 6 seats, BJP-TDP – 1 to 2 seats, MIM 0-1 seat.
Seemandhra
The YSR Congress’s debut test
While Congress can only hope to
reap the political harvest of AP’s division in Telangana, the negative
consequences of the same is clear for it in Seemandhra where its entire
political vote bank has been usurped by YSR Congress and a substantial part of
its leadership has joined TDP. The rest is only expecting the tide over the bad
waves and live another day to fight. Gaining even one seat in the state will be
a miracle for Congress even after the Muslim gambit. So who will be the real
beneficiary of Congress’s rout in the state? Most of the polls initially said
it is Jagan Mohan Reddy’s outfit YSR Congress. Yet many of them have rectified
their position and now say that the fight is even between the BJP-TDP alliance
and the YSR Congress. So what has changed in the recent days? Actually nothing
but the way we interpret the political situation in the state. The buzz around
YSR Congress is due to fact that it is now a single torch-bearer of the Reddy
clan who has been ruling the Andhra politics for years. They have been the real
beneficiary from the exploitation of Telangana landmass and its population. Now
they fear loss of political as well as economical benefits. That is why they
are united behind YSR’s son. Just like the Modi wave in the UP and Bihar is
looking strong because the Upper caste are putting their weight behind it, the
YSR Congress is being projected as a leader in Seemandhra. But in reality both
of them have big challenges before them.
To start with Congress’s victory
in Andhra in 2009 under YSR’s leadership was more due to his poltical foresight
rather than his popularity in the state. There was a massive 7% swing against
Congress as compared to 2004 in the parliamentary polls of 2009. But most of it
was captured by Chiranjeevi’s PRP which got more than 1,50,000 votes in around
10 constituencies. The Kapu vote, which was agitating against the Reddy
domination, was skillfully stopped to align with Kamma vote of TDP and it
severely dented the chances of Chandra Babu Nadu’s chances of reclaiming the
political space in the state. Again since TDP has never been a finance rich
party its inability to counter Congress’s money power was also a big factor in
its total defeat. This time the situation has changed. Chiranjeevi’s party is
no longer a player and since he realizes that Congress has no chance to counter
Jagan in Seemanadhra he has played another card by floating Jan Sena under the
leadership of his brother Pawan Kalyan. Since Jan Sena is not contesting
elections this time the Kapu vote is going to TDP-BJP alliance en block. Even
the Dalits – Malas and Madigas- are not too happy with the Reddy domination and
at least in Rayalseema they may back TDP-BJP. This makes YSR Congress unsteady
in Rayalseema while they retain the front running position in Coastal Andhra.
What is also benefitting YSR Congress is that Jagan still has a sizable amount
of wealth at his disposal and among all regional parties (barring probably SP)
his coffers are fuller. Since the Modi factor is not big in Seemandhra money
can be a prime motivator for many to vote. Jagan – due to demise of his father
– is also not carrying any political baggage and the charges of corruption
against him – due to the fact that they were slapped on him only after he
parted ways with Congress – is not becoming an issue, particularly among the
Reddy dominated area.
So for whom Seemandhra will root
for?
Having said all that recently
there has been a realization that the bifurcation of the state is a done deal
and now there is no benefit in opposing it. Jagan’s only achievement thus far
has been his whole hearted opposition to division. But is it enough to give him
the chair? The cases against Jagan are serious – even though politically
motivated. Any leader worth his salt in Delhi can easily manipulate him using
CBI as a tool. Even is the YSR Congress gets a majority Jagan may not be able
to become CM because the court can cancel his bail any moment. So is Seemandhra
prepared to see a Rabri moment where either Jagan Mohan’s mother or sister can
be asked to rule as procy? I doubt that it is. Even Jagan has realized that he
can not afford to offend any ruler in Delhi and that is why he is being soft on
Modi and BJP. This has made the situation of Muslims in Seemandhra quite perplexing.
Even though they are just about 8 to 9 percent of the total population yet they
can play a big role in constituencies where the Reddy support is not enough for
Jagan to win. But now they look flummoxed. They do not have the option to vote
for Congress as it is not a player in the state. Still there is more chance of
Jagan going with a Third Front-led, UPA supported government. So they may vouch
for him. Still I expect that voting in Muslim dominated areas in Seemandhra is
going to be low and this will further help TDP-BJP.
So what is the final word from
Seemnadhra
It is a bit tough to predict. We may not see a
wave yet but last few elections in Andhra have been lopsided one. Any coalition
can easily get 20 out of 25 Seemandhra seats if it plays its cards well. Still
I will say it is advantage TDP-BJP at this point of time. Yet if a simple
prediction is to be made I will say TDP-BJP 12-16, YSR Congress – 10-14, with
both sides having a chance to sweep the stakes. 
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