Predicting an election in Tamil
Nadu has long been a psepholgist’s nightmare. In the last three to four
elections seldom any opinion poll has captured the mood in Tamil Nadu to any
degree of credibility. So the best of scientific polls in this part of country
is just another guess where yours is as good as mines. Why I am speaking so?
Let us have a look at some recent trends. In 2004, after spectacular victory of
AIADMK in 2002 and the point that DMK was a big winner in 1999, everybody was
of the hope that Jaya is primed for a big haul. So big was this hype that it
even prompted BJP to break its alliance with DMK and adopt AIADMK is its last minute ally.
Even the mighty RAJNIKANT was fooled by this ‘wave’ and that is why he endorsed
the BJP-AIADMAK alliance in more than a subtle way. The result is for all of us
to see. AIADMK-BJP was blanked and DMK-Congress alliance got all 39 seats plus
Pondicherry and it was vital cog in the upset of 2004 elections. Nobody, apart
from Rajnikant, learned anything from this fiasco and everybody continued weigh
electoral politics in TN in the same way considering the 2004 results as an
anomaly. So several opinion polls in 2009 once again predicted a big win for
the AIADMK because they thought that many DMK MPs will lose their seats because
of the two terms of incumbency -an unimaginable situation in the musical chair
like politics of Tamil Nadu. Yet the Congress-DMK alliance stunned all the
naysayers and once again AIADMK’s tally was reduced to a single digit tally. Pollsters
now assumed that they are wrong in analyzing Jaya’s strength as a formidable
leader and thus when the 2012 round of Assembly elections took place they
predicted a close fight between Jaya and Karuna led parties. But once again
they were proved wrong as Jaya won a landslide victory along with her partner
Captain Vijaykant’s DMDK. So when the
2014 round of Lok Sabha elections came, the pollsters once again found
themselves in a fix. Initially they followed the old formula and predicted a
sweep for Jaya. But as the days are progressing some of them are having doubts.
The fact that AIADMK is fighting virtually alone in this ‘land of alliances’
and also that rural parts of Tamil Nadu are facing severe water and power
crisis has led to a believe that the 2004 kind of fiasco may repeat once again.
Though nobody has yet been brave enough to predict a rout for AIADMK, still
several pollsters are now calling 2014 as an even fight (just like 2012
Assembly elections!) between the two major parties. Now let us analyse why it
is so tough to predict Tamil Nadu nowadays.
The land of Rainbow alliances
In the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s the
Tamil Nadu politics was a two and a half horse race. Congress has a formidable
base in the state (around 13% of votes) and whichever of the DMKs aligned with
it usually swept the elections. The only exception of this rule was 1999 polls
when DMK-BJP’s rainbow alliance with MDMK and PMK outwitted the Cong.-AIADMK
alliance. From here the politics of TN took a big turn. A large chunk of votes
from the DMK and AIADMK was transferred to their minor partners and became an
integral part of their vote share. In 2004 while AIADMK allied with DMK the
rainbow coalition was very much in place and Congress simply replaced BJP in
this coalition. That is why DMK was able to replicate its success in 1999 in
2004 as well. In 2009, AIADMK leant its lessons and aligned with MDMK while PMK
was still in the UPA camp. But by then another grouping had emerged to make the
situation further murky in the Tamil Nadu politics. There was a sizeable drop
of around 6% in the overall vote share of UPA in the state. Had this vote been
directly transferred to AIADMK (as was the case in the past) a rout of UPA was
unavoidable. But DMDK’s emergence and the fact that it got around 10% of votes
in the very first election it fought doomed the AIADMK’s fate and despite
posing a serious challenge to the UPA candidates (especially the non-DMK ones)
AIADMK could get only nine seats. Jaya realized it and aligned with Captain in
2012 polls. This time the number crunchers were not sure whether Captain will
be able to transfer his votes to AIADMK and also whether or not DMDK’s
performance in 2009 was a fluke. So they played safe and predicted a tough
fight. But in the end both these apprehensions proved wrong and both Jaya and
Captain benefitted immensely from this alliance. Had this alliance been not in
place, this would have been indeed a very close fight between DMK and AIADMK. So
the last few elections proved that in Tamil Nadu it is alliances and not the
parties or candidates which decide the fate of electoral outcome. Or is it so?
The strange 2014 situation
With such a good case being there
for forging alliances (many of us may think it is politically suicidal to not
have one) it is quite amazing that both the bigger parties in Tamil Nadu paid
no heed to feelers from other parties to come along. Soon after coming to power
Jaya elected DMDK just as a rocket jettisons its boosters after the launch. DMK
also broke its 10 years old alliance with Congress and both of them paid no
attention to align with wither MDMK or PMK. Quite strangely DMDK (which already
considers itself as a big alternative in TN) was willing to fight till the very
last moment. In the last phase DMK also considered an alliance with Captain’s
outfit, but by then it was too late to negotiate with Captain who considers
himself as future CM of Tamil Nadu. So we have a very peculiar situation in
Tamil Nadu where both DMK and AIADMK are aligned with neither any national
party nor any regional once. As a result
we are having four-cornered (in theory) and three-cornered (in practical) on
each and every seat of the state. A multi-corner contest in Tamil Nadu is a
quite new phenomenon. As we know a truly multi corner contest can give you a large
number of seats with very few votes. Example is UP where once you pass the 30%
mark you can win majority of seats. However, in Tamil Nadu both the DMKs have
more than 30% cadre vote which hardly swings from one party to the other. So
the situation becomes trickier to analyze. However as a political crystal gazer
(albeit an amateur one) it is my duty to see through the maze and give you some
shot of snapshot of what is going to happen in the state in the current round
of elections. Let me do it by discussing the chances of all political
formations one by one.
AIADMAK
The ruling party seems to be
forerunner on all counts. One, in a multi-corner contest the ruling party
always has an upper hand. Example- AP and Maharashtra. An age old psephological
formula called index of opposition unity (which has been reduced to margins in
many states yet may be a factor in Tamil Nadu) is working in its fovour.
Second, its MP candidates are fairly new and do not have to face
anti-incumbency against them as is case with several DMK and Congress
candidates. Third, the pro-poor schemes launched by AIADMK have made a big
inroad in rural areas also where DMK had been traditionally strong. The cheaper
food scheme is as popular as that of Raman Singh’s in Chhatisgarh. Fourth, in a
state where corruption has always been a big issue the current Jayalalitha
government has remarkably been free of graft for more than two and half years.
That is also sending good feelers to the floating voters who are now supporting
Jaya against DMK which has refused to act against A Raja and has given him
ticket. Fifth, Jaya has positioned herself quite cleverly in the national
politics. By keeping herself equidistance from both the hypothetical third
front and the NDA, she has made sure that see remains relevant in the national
politics, whatever is the result on May 16. As she is considered close to
Narendra Modi, the Modi supporters in many seats where NDA is not in fight (and
there are close to two dozen seats in this category) are rooting for Jayalalitha
in the hope that she will ultimately support her good friend when her support
is all which can make the difference. Yet if she performs spectacularly, by
getting more than 30 seats, she may become the fulcrum of a larger alliance
that can stop Modi from becoming PM. So she is having an upper hand at the
moment. Still she has many problems as well. The AIADMK vote share in recent
years has never been more than 35% on its own and it has always consisted of a
good vote from the minority section. Her perceived closeness with NaMo which is
working for her in several constituencies is also depriving her from the
minority votes. All experts say that about 75% of Muslim votes and 40% of
Christian vote is going to DMK. This can make a difference for AIADMK in more
than half a dozen seats. How she counters this threat can be an interesting
thing to witness. Again Tamil Nadu being an industrial state cannot be satisfied
with pro-poor policies only. The lack of electricity is breaking the back of
many SMEs in the state and AIADMK may have to face the ire of their owners as
well as workers. Apart from it Jaya is earning a tag of unreliable ally. She
still has the old stigma of ditching Vajpayee in 1999. More recently her mover
to jettison DMDK after the assembly election and leaving Left parties high and
dry after almost stitching a pact with them for the Lak Sabha elections has
only provided credibility to the line of thought that she cannot be trusted for
playing a larger role on the national level on behalf of Tamil Nadu. All these
factors may under-cut any kind of political advantage AIADMK may be having due
to multi-cornered contests and may stop it from sweeping the stakes. In my view
AIADMK may bag 20 to 25 seats in the state in this election. Any number that is
lower than 20 will be a surprise as well as any number up from 25 onwards.
DMK
When the bugle for 2014 elections
was sounded, DMK looked the most handicapped of all the political parties in
India. It not only lost its long standing allies (just like JD-U), but was out
of power both in the state as well as center (just like BSP), it was also
facing a crisis in its first family (just like Shiv Sena) and its key members
were suffering severe charges for corruption (just like RJD). Yet apart from
RJD it is the only party that has gained in the run-up to the elections. Though
getting back as its 19 MPs reelected this time will be not possible. DMK will
not suffer a crippling blow in terms of its vote share (which will be marginally
down by 2 to 3%). It is also emerging clear winner in at least 6 to 8 seats and
a double digit tally for the original Dravidian party should not surprise
anyone. So how this turnaround was achieved? Firstly by breaking alliance with
Congress it made sure that it gets to fight as many seats as possible. It has
realized that incumbency against local MPs can be the best armor against the
strong anti-UPA wave in the constituency. As of now DMK is contesting in 20
seats which did not elect a UPA MP in 2009. More than half of DMK MPs to the 16th
Lok Sabha will be elected from these constituencies only. Again by breaking
away from UPA it has also made it clear that just like AIADMK it is ready to
play ball with any player which has a chance to form government in the center.
Stalin’s recent pro-Modi remarks can be seen as a proof of this. This is
confusing some voters which is not against Modi but is also not in favour of
supporting Jaya or her local MP. Though this ploy may not be successful in a
big way, it can tilt the balance in many seats. Again the firm hand of Stalin
behind the campaign and selection of candidates is also working for DMK in many
seats, particularly those who do not have DMK MPs. Most of the Stalin
supporters are long time politicians with good local connections. His image as
an able administrator has also energized the core DMK votes (just like Akhilesh
has done for SP) which was not happy with dominance of Marans, Alagiri and
Kanimozhi in DMK politics. The purge of Alagiri supporters has made the partly
slimmer but more energetic. After many elections the party is fighting as a one
unit. Together they may swim or sink depending on the electoral tides still the
party will have a certain path to follow in the years to come. This has made
DMK cadres happy as they now that their loyalty to a certain leader will be
rewarded in time to come. Still DMK has many roadblocks too. Just like AIADMK
it is also quite weak without an alliance. The uncertainty of role after May
16, is also stopping a strong minority consolidation in favour of the party.
Biggest of all the party is facing a resource crunch. It is a known fact that
in 2009 elections DMK spent crores of rupees to win certain seats in the state.
This is no more the case. With Supreme Court’s close scrutiny of party funds
and also the accounts of its key supporters money is not readily available this
time. Alagiri was also a key fund raiser and loss of his Madurai set of donors
may hamper the party more than the supposed loss of his political supporters.
This has tied DMKs hand in many constituencies and it may not be able to pose a
serious challenge to cash-rich AIADMK candidates in more than 20 seats. So
realistically the party is in serious fight in only about 20-odd seats and may
be able to win anything between 8 to 12 seats. However if this happens it will
surely be rising from the ashes like story.
NDA
Another strange factor of the
E-14 in TN is emergence of a non-DMK, non-AIADMK alliance with a sizeable
electoral presence. The six-party rainbow coalition has a strong support of
some 20% of TN voters and expects that the NaMo wave can give it an additional
5 to 7% vote which will make it a formidable player in the elections. Ever
since DMDK emerged as the second largest party in the TN Assembly, it has
maintained it is an alternative to the stalemate of TN politics which is held
hostage to whims and fancies of certain individuals in two main parties of the
state. This was precisely the reason why Jaya shut the door on Captain and
later overturned the feelers from DMK for an alliance. It now hopes that the
solid and consolidated vote bank of MDMK and PMK will make his party winner in
many seats. But the problem of this alliance is its strongest link is its
weakest also. DMDK has a strong 10-12% backing in the state but is spread thin
across the constituencies. In 2009 elections DMDK could neither win a seat nor could
it finish second anywhere in the state, partly because it was not part of any
alliance. It had got more than couple of lakh votes in just 2 seats. Unlike
many of the caste identity based parties DMDK does not have a huge area of
influence. It can tilt the balance in favor of DMK or AIADMK in many seats if
it aligns with them, but the wining ability factor of this party is
susceptible. Since it is contesting largest number of seats among the NDA
allies their numbers can be curtailed in a big way. If Captain can prove that
he is winning (which is difficult to achieve this time) only then he can pluck
the floating voters. Unlike DMDK, all other NDA parties MDMK, PMK and BJP do
have their areas of influence but it is not more than 3 to 4 seats for all of
them. Again PMK and MDMK have not contested alone for a longtime and nobody
knows what their real vote share is. But this alliance has overcome many
hurdles till now. First there was serious doubt that PMK and DMDK can overcome
their mutual rivalry on several seats yet it happened. Then there were question
marks on joint campaigning but it has also been sorted out and this is turning
out the most balanced alliance campaigning anywhere in the country. The
alliance partners have picked the baton of “Modi as PM” with glee and are
running with it all the way to finish. Now only if Captain can transfer his
share of solid backing to MDMK and PMK (particularly in Southern TN and
Vanniyar dominated middle lands) another myth can be busted. As of now the
alliance means serious business in about 10 to 15 seats and if everything goes to
plan they may notch up a combined tally of 8 to 12 seats. However the real
danger of this alliance is a big negative impact on AIADMK’s tally. If the
alliance wins more than 10 seats, AIADMK’s numbers can slip below 20 and in the
end it can impact the overall number of Modi supporters in Delhi. This is the
irony with which the BJP is learning fast to live with.
Congress
It is for the first time that
Congress is finding itself behind BJP in Tamil Nadu. But is also for the only
the second time (after 1998 when it drew a blank) in four decades that the
party is going solo in the state. Still I refuse to believe that Congress will
get less seats than BJP in Tamil Nadu. The reason is that Congress has solid
following in many seats and its vote share never plunged below 10%. In 1998 the
Moopnar led TMC had walked away with a solid chunk of Congress votes. This time
it is also not so. Again Congress has suffered in Tamil Nadu in recent times
because the omission and commissions made by DMK while it got nothing out of
it. The TN electorate knows the real brain behind 2G Scam and now that INC and
DMK have parted way, many will not punish INC for it. Reports with me suggest
that in seats which have a sizable presence of minority INC has comeback
strongly. Since both DMK and AIADMK have not been harsh on BJP, the minority
voters feel safer by clutching Congress’s hand. Many DMK voters are also
ditching it because they see Congress as a real player in Delhi and not DMK. In
fact Congress is benefitting more from split than DMK. This has made congress a
serious player in about 6 seats and it may convert most of them into victory. However
if this happens DMK numbers are certain to go down.
So what is the final word….
As TN is a psephologists’s
nightmare allow me to take a liberty and sketch two possible scenario in the
state :-
1. If
NaMo factor works – AIADMK 15 -20, DMK- 6 to 10, NDA – 6 to 10 Congress 2 to 5
2. If
NaMo factor does not work – AIADMK 25 -30, DMK- 6 to 10, NDA – 1 to 2 Congress
2 to 3
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