At a time when the entire country
has been obsessed with fascinating rise of a party whose name starts with A and
ends with P this piece on Assam will reveal how such kind of mass hysteria in
politics can be dangerous for the object as well as subject. When a barely 33-year-old
Prafulla Mohanty grabbed power in Assam in 1985 everybody expected him to get
rid of years of neglect Assam had faced, but today both Mohanty and his party
is facing extinction and year 2014 may witness end of a dream debut of AGP.
Well that may be just one of the angles of Assam politics which is very
different from the national scene where regional parties are trying to end the hold
of national alliances. Another difference with Assam is that while in every
other state Congress is fearing its worst ever performance and a single digit
tally in Assam it is expected to not only hold its position but also add a bit
more glitter to Gogoi’s resolute stand of what may be the last citadel of the
Grand Old party of India. Well why it is so let us proceed and explore ….
The peculiar state of affairs in
Assam.
Despite having just 14 seats
Assam is not a homogenous state. There are numerous tribes and among the Bodo
people dominate couple of seats which have remained outside the domain of big
political parties in Assam be it AGP, BJP, AUDF or even Congress. To complicate
the matter the demographic changes in each and every parliamentary constituency
is being eschewed due to migration. When the AGP was formed it had a high
acceptance among locals which were agitating primarily against the immigrants
coming from northern Indian states and West Bengal. But as time has changed
Assam is rapidly becoming a predominantly Muslim state. As the census work in
Assam is not simple, no authentic a data is available and by the EC records
around 15 lakh voters (out of which 80% are Muslim) are now categorized as
Doubtful. Naturally these people, whether a genuine voter or not, are at the
mercy of the state government for their continuous stay in the state. This has
given Congress a big advantage in lower Assam and Barak Valley which were
emerging as crucial support bastions for AGP and BJP in this region. Now each
of these 6 constituencies have around 2 lakh voters who are siding with
Congress and have no other option (AIUDF including). In the last five years
their numbers have swelled by some 30% and many BJP seats in this region are prone
to shift to INC due to this factor alone. And there are others too, Let us have
a look at them too.
The Hindu Hand
The Hindutva factor may be
helping BJP elsewhere in the country but in Assam (as is the case with CPM in
Kerala) the Hindu vote is helping Congress. It may seem ironical in the context
of what has been written above but it is true. Many Muslims in Assam are voting
for Congress only because they fear reprisal from the state government. Given a
chance they will vote for Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF. It has to be noted that
Congress does not have a good Muslim leadership in the state. In 2009 only one
Muslim was elected MP on INC ticket. In the last few years with fall in AGP’s
graph and rise of AIUDF votes, non-tribal Hindus have been worried. The communal
riot that took place in Kokrajhar in 2012 is also further putting fear in the
common Hindu populace. Prior to 2014 elections there were lot of talks about an
alliance between AIUDF and Congress, but it did not happen. The reasoning
behind it is that had this happened, the Hindu vote would have galvanized in
the favour of BJP. Now that Congress is fighting alone and because on many
seats only Congress can defeat AIUDF, the Hindu vote in those seats will
naturally go to it. This factor is working for Congress in at least three Assam
seats. In two seats BJP has been able to convince the local Hindus that it can take
on AIUDF on its own and thus it is getting support from the Hindus. It has to
be noted that in Assam AIUDF is not a pan-State player. It has solid influence
in around six seats and can play the spoiler in two other seats. Congress is
expected to win Six out of these nine seats. AIUDF may get one and BJP may get
one or two.
The AGP-BJP break-up
It is after four Lok Sabha polls
(they fought together in 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009) that AGP and BJP are
fighting separately in Assam. But it is not going to be a big factor in Assam.
Last time too AGP could win only one out of the six seats allotted to it, while
BJP won four out of seven. Given the constant erosion in its support base it
could have lost that seat too. BJP had offered it two seats, but AGP refused
and thus the alliance could not be continued. Now since majority of top AGP
leadership has shifted to BJP, it is not going to hurt it too much. In fact in
a couple of seats vacated by AGP like Dibrugarh and Lakhimpur BJP stands a good
chance to win. BJP is not hopeful of retaining more than two seats (Gauhati and
Silchar) in the state. AGP is now expected to perish completely giving way to
emergence of a new political equation in the state, where BJP can hope to play
a major role in the days to come.
So what is the final word…
The final seat tally from Assam
may look like this. Congress – 7 to 9, BJP – 1 to 3, AIUDF- 1 to 2, BPF -1,
Independent – 1
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