BJP’s Audacious Plans for Odisha

At a time when a leader who has been CM of a state since 2002 is selling himself as the most winnable candidate for PM post, we cannot ignore another leader who has been at the helm of affairs in his own state since 1999. Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik is now gunning for a straight fourth term as the CM of Odisha. Not a mean achievement for someone nicknamed “Pappu” which is synonymous for failure in India. The soft-spoken and poor orator Naveen stands apart from his more vocal and cunning East Indian counterparts like Nitish Kumar, Mamta Banerjee and Tarun Gogoi. Still no one doubts his credentials as a vote catcher and an above par administrator. Yet the election 2014 is not about Naveen in Odisha. The recent poll projections coming out of the state indicate a huge swing in favour of BJP – past ally of BJD – which has astonished both the supporters and opponents of BJP. Yet unlike other states pollsters do not agree on what is in store for the saffron outfit in this state. The opinion polls are quite gung-ho about its chances in the state. The March-April 2014 CSDS election tracker has put BJP in the second place behind BJD in the state. But the margin is very thin 34% for BJD and 30% for BJP. This comes within the expected margin of 3% that pollsters generally take into account while generating results. Not to mention that it is BJP which has the momentum and is picking up fringe voters while BJD votes are static since May 2013. Congress is falling to the wayside with each passing day. On the other hand the NDTV-Hansa research poll suggests that things have not changed since 2009 in the state and BJP is still a distant third in the state. So what is the reality? I talked to few of my sources in Odisha and also dig into some stats for Odisha polls and this is what I have been able to come forward with.

The BJP sentiment should not be surprising

The 2009 poll data suggest that BJD is not that strong in Southern Orissa especially is tribal belts where BJP was a force to reckon with. In Sudergarh party candidate Jual Oram (a minister in Vajpayee) government lost by just about 12,000 votes to the Congress candidate. On as many as 12 seats BJP got more than 1,50,000 votes and was a close third on about three to four seats. It is also to be noted that on all these seats Congress was eventual winner and in a way it was a big beneficiary from the BJD-BJP break up in 2009. So the people say that BJP’s rise in Odisha is not sudden. In 2009 the break up with BJD came as a jolt and BJP leaders were not ready to fight on their own (in fact the decision to break away from JD-U in Bihar well ahead of the 2014 was somewhat inspired by this fact). It also lacked credibility as an opposition to BJD, which were its ally weeks prior to the polls. So both parties ended up eating into each other votes and Congress was able to corner all the anti-BJD votes. Now things have changed. BJP has been in the opposition for a full term of five years and the BJP MLAs have been vocal against BJD government also. Again Congress is being perceived as a loser nationally and those who have aligned with it to oppose BJD may not be inclined to do so now. The Modi factor is also working. It is said that the Modi wave is limited in the Hindi-speaking states as Modi is a good orator in Hindi only. Odisha is primarily a non-Hindi state and thus in the rural Orissa his appeal will be limited. If this turns out to be true, it will certainly expose the limitation of Modi’s charisma. So BJP do have a chance to do well in land of Jaggannath as well as land of Somnath.

Yet we may be overestimating BJP’s strength

There is also a group of people who say that in 2009 many BJP candidates were sitting MPs. It had won 7 out of 9 seats allotted to it in 2004 and most of the seats where BJP candidates got vote were seats which have been either been traditionally held by BJP or were carved out from the BJP strongholds during the delimitation exercise. As sitting MPs always have clout in their seats it is not surprising that BJP got votes in those seats. They also point out that BJP failed to cross the one lakh vote marks in key urban areas like Cuttack, Bhubaneshwar, Berhampore and Bhadrak. In all these seats BJD won with huge margin getting more than 4 lakh votes. So even if the Modi factor boosts it in the urban areas it may not be able to get it anywhere close to BJD votes. Congress must also not be too much hopeful from the fact of BJP cutting into BJD votes as BJD had trounced it by more than 1,00,000 votes in as many as 8 seats. A surge in Congress vote is not being seen anywhere in Odisha and thus a spike in BJP votes may just bring down BJD victory margin in these seats. As per my estimates BJD is playing safe in 10 seats including Aska, Berhampore, Puri, Bhubaneshwar, Kendrapara, Cuttack, Kandmahal, Jajpur, Koraput and Dhenkanal. Congress may have a fighting chance in 4 to 6 seats only, if its vote margin does not increase. A 5% decline (which pollsters suggest is taking place) may bring it down to 2 to 3 seats.

So what are the BJP’s chances in Odisha this time

My sources tell me that BJP in serious fight in as many as six seats in Odisha. They are Sundergarh, Mayurbhanj, Bolangir, Kalahandi, Sambhaplur and Balasore. They expect that if JMM is not able to come to Congress’s rescue in the tribal belts of Odisha it may garner 2 to 3 seats from this area. Outside this belt chances of BJP picking any seats are remote as of now. In Bolangir its state president Singhdev is a royal scion and may pull out a surprise if Modi magic works for him. My sources say me that 2 seats for BJP will be a disappointment, 3 to 4 seats will be OK and 5 to 6 seats will be too good. The same parameters for BJD are 8 to 10, 10 to 12 and 12 to 15 respectively. For Congress anything above three seats will be OK. Still given the national mood it may draw a blank in this state too. Most of them say that the gap between BJP and Congress’s vote percentage will be minimal and at least in Lok Sabha it may push Congress to 3^rd place. In assembly election it is expected to come close second to BJP’s third place finish.

What implications can it have for a post-poll scenario in 2014?

The central leadership has always treated Naveen as a potential ally and even in post May 16 scenario, BJD’s kitty of a dozen MPs or so are expected to support BJP to keep Congress out of power. This is the line of thought which stops the BJP leadership (barring Narendra Modi) to go all out against BJD. Put post May 16 if the projected numbers for BJP in Odisha holds true, it may set off an entire new chain of events. If BJP’s vote share crosses 20% mark in the assembly polls and 25% mark in the Lok Sabha polls Naveen’s anti-Congress plank may change. If BJP emerges as a principal opposition of BJD in the state Naveen may find it hard to support BJP in the center. On the other hand if BJP manages to form a government without BJD in Delhi, we may see a sudden exodus of Congress leaders to BJP. This will also not augur well for BJD. So post May 16 Naveen may find himself caught between a rock and a hard place. But if the numbers turn out to be what has been suggested in the Hansa poll, Naveen may be tempted to support BJP. But as my sources have indicated he will prefer a third front government and will support a non-Modi BJP leader only as a last resort. There is no way Naveen can be wooed to back Modi as he will feel it safe in containing himself in Odisha rather than risking the minority vote (about 10%) which may shift directly to Congress if he agrees to support Modi. One of my sources also say that if Congress slips below 15% mark in the state, we may see a tectonic shift in state politics as Congress may go for an alliance with BJD with Congress becoming a junior partner, just like it has been doing in Tamil Nadu and Bihar for several years. Though many, including myself, see this as a far-fetched scenario yet politics in Odisha seems tantalizingly poised for a change. What its shape will can be clear only after May 16.