Will Nitish's WMD work in 2014?

It has begun…

The 2014 General elections – one of the most critical elections of our times – is now real. The dates have come out and finally we are going to see an epic battle (mind it that this is not 2004 or 2009). This is going to be the one that defines the future of at least two generations –ours as well as our kids. Who wins or who loses only time will tell. But as far as my understanding of things are concerned it is too close to call. Contrary to what many pollsters say the BJP is nowhere close to podium yet it is not out of race either. In the course of next few weeks I will be sharing my views – as well as some grapevine items that I regularly get from my friends in media - with you guys. In this piece however I am starting a series to discuss what is the current state of affairs of the electoral politics in several states and to start with let us have a look at native state i.e. Bihar – a place where politics is lived, breathed and discussed all the time. Though it is almost impossible to see through the murky political scene in the state – where decades of conventional political settings have been disturbed in last few months – yet let me wear my psephological hat once again and try to see what many find amusing about the peculiar state of affairs in this state that sends 40 MPs to the parliament. For your benefit I am discussing the prospects of various parties/alliances one by one and my most recent point of reference is the CSDS-CNN-IBN election tracker (which I found most credible given their past records). So let us go….

The BJP-LJP Alliance

The tracker gives this alliance the pole position with almost 40% votes and 22-30 seats. I have some differences with it. Though when I was talking to my most trusted source at the time of BJP-JD(U) split he said BJP will get 24 seats on its own if this happens, I did not believe him then and I refuse to do so even now. The alliance may be ahead at this point of time giving it 30 seats it to it is not prudent. There are several reasons to it. BJP is contesting only 30 seats in the state and its allies do not even have ten credible people to put up candidates in the rest of seats. I am not the view that the non-BJP votes will swing to LJP-RLSP only in the name of Modi. Take the example of Vaishali. LJP is likely to put up Rama Singh from this constituency. I loathe to accept that even his own caste will back him against someone like Raghuvansh Prasad Singh who carried the seat even in 2009 anti-RJD wave. So I do not expect the allies to carry more than 3 or at the most 4 out of 10 seats allotted to them.  

Now come to BJP part. Of the 30 seats it is likely to contest many are gone case. Take the example of Katihar. Even when the JD-U vote was entirely behind it BJP won this seat by a slender margin of 14000. In 2004 when NCP candidate was backed by RJD the margin was even slimmer say 2500 votes. Now the JD-U vote is no longer with BJP and there is not enough space to cut into RJD votes as Tariq Anwar is formidable candidate here. So the seat is a goner. Similar is the case of seats like Darbhanga (winning margin 47000 in 2009, Cong. got 40724 votes, In 2004 RJD had won by 143000), Madhubani (winning margin 10000 in 2009, Cong. got 111423 votes, In 2004 Cong. had won by 81000) etc. are gone cases for BJP. Seats like Madhepura, Siwan, Kishanganj, Supaul, Nalanda, etc. are clearly out of reach for BJP as many of them are completely dominated by groups who are not supposed to vote for BJP as their first choice of votes. Muslims are not going to back this alliance at any cost, Yadavs (CSDS poll says some 28% Yadavs are voting for them) will not vote for it unless RJD-Cong. is a gone case (as they are not in these seats) and Kurmi votes (CSDS gives 40% KK votes to the alliance) will not swing to it unless they are the only party than beat RJD. So the alliance is not in a formidable position in more than 25 seats in the state. In fact most of the seats given to the allies – barring the case of Hajipur – were those that could have been won by BJP as most of them were not pocket borough of any party and the social coalition in those seats were quite flexible. A reasoning given behind this was that most of them were JD-U seats. Yet I am very much confused with BJP’s fascination about sitting MPs. As I have gone through the data sheet in Bihar one thing is clear, barring a few heavyweights MPs do not get re-elected. The anti-incumbency against MPs is too high. One of the silver linings of NDA split was the hope that BJP could get some of the JD-U seats and JD-U could unseat a few BJP MPs. That hope is gone at least in BJP’s case. Again BJP – after barring 1984 and 1991 – has never contested all 40 seats in Bihar. The results in both these polls were disastrous. Yes the party has gained political weights tremendously since then but all said and done on at least a dozen seats it is staring in black hole regarding outcome. This may have prompted them in jettisoning some of the seats. Still I find too many ifs and buts associated with BJP’s chances on many of these seats. Though I will be able to predict seat wise scenario only is my next blog, at this point of time I do not see this grouping crossing 20 seats (at most 16 for BJP and 4 to the allies) in Bihar.   

RJD-Cong. alliance – On the paper – despite loss of LJP- this alliance still remains a lot heavier than the other two formations by the number of committed voters. The alliance can go to poll with at least 20% of votes assured to its kitty. No other formation can claim it. As Cong. is the national competition for Modi and BJP Muslims are now going to throw their full weight behind this alliance and so are Yadavs. This alliance is also fielding some of the biggest Muslim names in the state. RJD has fielded Muslim candidates from Begusarai, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Shivhar, Siwan and Araria seats. Cong.-NCP will also field at least 3-4 more candidates from this community. Unless JD-U finds some heavyweights to counter them there victory is all but assured due to division in NDA votes. RJD is also gainer because it is the only party which has the experience of fighting almost all 40 seats in the state and has party presence upto booth levels in all these seats. So by default it is going to benefit from division in anti-Laloo votes and I will be surprised if fails to cross double digit mark on its own.  Yet there is a caveat to all this. As the RJD’s Candidate list reveals to us in order to stop rebellion and gain from experience of its leaders, RJD has reputed most of its 2009 candidates. Names like Raghunath Jha, Anwarul Haque, Alok Mehta, Ramji Manjhi, Taslimuddin, Magni Lal Mandal etc. do not reflect well with the RJD voters. It has to be noted that younger lots among RJD voters have already rejected most of them and especially the first time Yadav voters (somewhat more attracted towards Modi) may reject some of them in favour of BJP-LJP alliance. Names like Pragati Mehta (Munger) and Sudhanshu Shekhar (Jamui) along with Misa Bharti in Patliputra is not enough for RJD to attract the first time voters.

As far as its alliance partner Congress is concerned. It is very unlikely that it will find much traction among RJD voters. Muslims may still vote for it but Yadavs will have no reason to back the much-maligned Congress which is making their day-to-day life more difficult. Most of the seats Congress has got – barring Sasaram, Kishanganj, Aurangabad and Supaul - are gone case. Even in Kishanganj Congress may find it difficult to retain the seat as the probable AAP candidate Parveen Amanullah (daughter of ex-MP Md. Shahhbuddin) can win this seat on her own. It is to be reminded that Kishanganj muslims – just like Madhepura Yadavs – are enlightened lot and for them backing an AAP candidate with an impeccable integrity should not be a far-fetched idea. So for Congress to add anything to its couple of seats in Bihar will be a herculean task. NCP may find it a bit easy (as explained earlier) to win its seat. Thus the RJD-Congress –NCP alliance can win minimum 10 to maximum 15 seats in the state.

JD-U – The most desperate situation is that of JD-U. Just like BJP it is for the first time that JD-U is going to contest all the seats on its own and there is serious paucity of candidates. Old MPs are deserting and poaching new ones from RJD (particularly after Congress alliance) is proving too difficult. Added to it woes is the fact that the party has no formidable caste coalition of fall back upon. Nitish Kumar may harp on the fact that Bihar has moved ahead from the status of voting on caste lines but as Maharajganj by-election has shown without BJP support JD-U will find it difficult to win a large number of seats. The CSDS poll gives it around 6 seats in the state and a few JD-U leaders are livid that how JD-U can go to such a low after winning 20 seats in 2009. But it had happened in 2004 after the high of 1999 and while Nitish may blame Modi for that debacle it is again facing a similar rout thanks to Modi again (though under a very different set of circumstances).

Nitish’s greatest hope to pull a rabbit out of hat is based on die-hard support from Kurmi voters (3.8 percent) and cornering a good payback from Muslims for the work done by his administration (and I refuse it to call a JD-U government now it is clearly Nitish administration where he is calling all the shots) and parting away from Modi on their behalf. Yet with RJD tying up with Congress Muslims will not vote against RJD because if they do so, Yadav vote will automatically go to BJP to defeat Nitish’s candidate. Since Muslims do tactical voting they will not vote for JD-U unless they are sure that there is no other way to defeat BJP. Hence the bigger source of hope for Nitish is the 21.3 percent extremely backward castes and a large traction of what he calls Mahadalit votes. But the problem with this vote bank is they need a greater force to bind them together and protect them if there is backlash against them for voting for any party. In fact in Bihar Yadav, Bhumihar, Rajputs and Dusadh are the castes that act as galvanizers. When BJP was with JD-U the EBC and Mahadalit could vote for NDA without fearing any kind of repercussions. They knew that is they vote for NDA the candidate will surely win and even if they lose there is a formidable force to protect their interest. This time it is not so. There are not even a half dozen seats where JD-U candidate can be called frontrunner and there are apprehensions about survival of Nitish government post-May elections hence supporting JD-U may not be a great idea for them. They are likely to vote for front runners (say for BJP in Patna Saheb and RJD in Madhepura). Still there is a caveat. Nitish government has done a lot for these people and there is wish in these ranks to return the favour. So if Nitish finds some good candidates they can break bread with JD-U too. BJP’s greatest hope is also hinged upon taking away these fringe votes. But it should know that JD-U was a bridge between the two. Since they have burnt it they will have to cross a great social divide to assimilate them in their ways. It is very unlikely that the Bihar BJP leadership – so much dominated by upper caste leaders – which is still finding it hard to co-opt with Ram Vilas Paswan will be able to arouse much trust in them. JD-U may pull out a surprise here. And the last point is the most fascinating in JD-U story. During the assembly election 2010 – I spent a large time in Bihar during those elections – I found it amazing that women were the main driving force behind NDA’s surprise victory in many seats. Women – irrespective of their caste identity – voted for NDA candidates especially those belonging to JD-U. The trend was more obvious in upper caste women, Muslim women and Dalit women. But I am sure that this was also true for Yadav women though not open for obvious reasons. I have seen that in Delhi assembly election first time voters openly defied the elders in their family to vote for AAP. The same happen in the case of JD-U as far as women of Bihar are concerned and mind you they constitute around 45% of Bihar electorate. If this happens JD-U can surprise BJP in many urban seats, though it will not be able to penetrate RJD strongholds. So the WMD Equation – Women, Muslims, Dalit – can be the biggest arrow in Nitish’s quiver in this election. (I know the term carries a negative connation still it can be spin doctored as “We Mean Development”). Still all these positive scenarios are fickle and fictitious as of now. If the Bihar votes in conventional way – or even if the same way as it did in 2010 assembly elections – JD(U) should feel itself blessed if it crosses its seat tally of 2004.

That is all I can say about Bihar politics at this point of time. Tomorrow I will follow-up with a true grass root level story of coalition politics and my take on state of affairs in Assam.